(AFP) – During his first term as US president, Donald Trump sparked outrage over his remarks about African nations, but African leaders have been quick to congratulate him since his re-election. They are calling for cooperation with mutual respect. Veteran Kenyan politician Raila Odinga, for one, has shrugged off Trump’s comments, made at a private January 2018 meeting when he reportedly referred to African nations, among others, as “shithole” countries. That was then, Odinga told AFP. “This is now — another, new Trump.”
Questions remain, however, about how Trump’s isolationist “America First” agenda will impact Africa, especially if Republicans control both the US House and the Senate.
– **Trade issues** – The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been a cornerstone of US trade with Africa since the Clinton administration. With duty-free access for African exports, AGOA includes a broad range of goods from clothing to yams and cars. South Africa is the largest non-oil AGOA exporter to the United States, and Trump has already promised broad tariffs on foreign imports. His position on AGOA’s future is unclear, but the pact is up for renewal next year. “Under a Trump administration, with its ‘America First’ mantra, trade policy would likely be insular and transactional,” Ronak Gopaldas, analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies, Africa, wrote before the election. “Given Trump’s scepticism of multilateral frameworks, AGOA’s continuation could be legitimately under threat. Although Africa might not feature prominently on his agenda, Trump’s first administration did push for trade deals with select African countries, suggesting a preference for bilateral engagement,” he added.
Another question is how Trump’s competition with China will play out in Africa. The US-backed Lobito Corridor Atlantic port and rail project in Angola, for example, aims to transport resources, including copper and cobalt — key for sustainable energy — from mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to the port for export. The project is a highly strategic one in the US challenge to China’s expanding economic influence.
– **Security and counter-terrorism** – During his first tenure, Trump ordered US troops out of Somalia, where they had been helping in the fight against Islamist militants. Under President Joe Biden, US forces have been forced out of Niger by the military government there. France too has been obliged to pull its military forces out of the Sahel, as the military regimes there have shifted to Russia for help. US forces have long played a role in training and counter-terrorism on a continent where militants aligned with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group operate. US Africa Command chief General Michael Langley said in September that the US military was discussing with other African partners what comes next after the Sahel withdrawal to “reset and recalibrate” assets.
However, Africa Corps, the Russian mercenary group, is making inroads in Africa and Islamist militants are growing in strength in the Sahel. The question, then, is what role US forces will play under Trump? He has already criticised the billions of dollars in US spending for Ukraine.
– **US aid** – The US is the largest single donor to Africa, with figures at nearly $4 billion for the sub-Saharan continent in 2024, according to the US State Department. During his first administration, Trump proposed billions of dollars in foreign aid cuts, though he faced resistance from the US Congress. South African newspapers are already discussing whether PEPFAR, the US programme to help combat HIV and AIDS, will continue under Trump. US officials say the programme has saved 25 million lives in two decades. However, last year its renewal was held up in a dispute with Republican lawmakers, who linked it to the abortion debate.
– **Climate aid** – Africa is the continent most affected by fallout from climate change, while contributing least to carbon emissions. With Trump dismissing climate change as a scam, some activists fear his administration may hamper the continent’s attempts to turn to sustainable energy sources. In his first term, Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement to curb global warming. This time he has pledged to reverse Biden’s climate-friendly measures. “Climate action is urgent,” wrote Mohamed Adow, Kenyan activist and director of Power Shift Africa, in a statement responding to Trump’s election. “Victims of climate catastrophes in the Global South need life-saving support. The world has dealt with a Trump presidency that included the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement. His return could see a second exit from the agreement by America and the cancellation of its climate commitments. This is a moment of profound apprehension in global climate diplomacy.”
© 2024 AFP
